I am feeling the need to have additional data to make wise decisions for myself and my Mom as Arizona opens for business. I researched and discovered the following data:
I know Covid-19 is more contagious than the flu, but I want to compare hospitalizations between the two because being hospitalized means that you have a serious, possibly life-threatening case.
According to CDC 90% of those hospitalized with Covid-19 have one or more additional medical condition.
CDC -cumulative Covid rate of hospitalization starting March 7 2020 through May 9 2020
all ages 55 per 100,000 hospitalized w covid
age 65-74 90 per 100,000 hospitalized w covid
age 75-84 235 per 100,000 hospitalized w covid
age 85+ 350 per 100,000 hospitalized with Covid-19
Now the above Covid rates are for only 2 months. However, the first U.S. case was in January, so I suspect that they added those early hospitalizations for Covid into the cumulative above. So, I suspect the above rates are for 3 months and not just 2. I'm not sure however.
The normal flu season starts slowly in Oct-Nov and ends in March with February usually being it's peak. The average flu season lasts 5-6 months
I couldn't find data on CDC that divided hospitalizations for flu into similar ages as above.
However, a study published in Journal of Am Med Assoc 9/15/04 (Influenza Associated Hospitalizations in the U.S.) listed following averages of # of hospitalizations based on records from 500 hospitals in the U.S.
Average # hospitalized yearly for influenza related illness between 1980 and 2001
Age 65-69 71/100,000 (106/100,000 for Flu with pneumonia)
Age 70-74 128/100,000 (207/100,000 " " " )
Age 75-79 220/100,000 (312 " " " )
Age 80-84 302/100,000 (376 " " " )
Age 85+ 629/100,000 (777 " " " )
It seems to me that we are on track to having a similar number hospitalized with Covid-19 as we have in our average Flu season. We are higher in hospitalizations over 2-3 months with covid especially in the 75-84 year group than the average flu season (study averaged over 21 years), but not too much.
How does this translate to my every day life? Hummm
OK. I had my ASU roomy and fellow nursing buddy who never had to study and went on to become an awesome ER Doctor look at this and I post her comments for your review. Her recommendation: Lay Low. Although she does say that starting to open is the only option now. "Hopeful for a vaccine (even with the known issues of mutations), and really excited about the antibody therapies in trials, but herd immunity is what is most likely to help us in the long run." And I say that the only way to get herd immunity is to open up. I will stay home as much as possible and protect my Sweet Mom.
Hi Dear Carol!
I tried to answer, at least partially, on your blog and failed twice
without it telling me why. I copied my message the last time, so...
You always look fabulous in your ASU cap! 
I can’t bring myself to compare Covid to the flu, for which we have
some immunity, post infectious therapy, and vaccines that at least offer
at some cross protection. I’m not sure that we can rely on the
hospitalization figures for guidance either (helpful, aren’t I? - Ha!).
Many patients have died at home, and the majority have not been counted
unless they had a previous positive test (my least favorite topic these
days). Patients dying of pneumonia as early as December were almost
certainly Covid in retrospect. Lost my message once already, and since
you can’t get me off my soapbox 🤣 I’ll write more below.
I can’t bring myself to compare Covid to the flu, for which we have
some immunity, post infectious therapy, and vaccines that at least offer
at some cross protection. I’m not sure that we can rely on the
hospitalization figures for guidance either (helpful, aren’t I? - Ha!).
Many patients have died at home, and the majority have not been counted
unless they had a previous positive test (my least favorite topic these
days). Patients dying of pneumonia as early as December were almost
certainly Covid in retrospect. Lost my message once already, and since
you can’t get me off my soapbox 🤣 I’ll write more below.
Testing has been a problem, IMHO, and not because of availability, or
lack thereof. People are relying on it, and you just can’t yet,
although PCR is at least somewhat helpful. At least 10-20% of tests are
false negative, and as high as 30% in some reports. Hard to interpret a
lot of the reports though. Patients dying of Covid often test negative
well into the course of the hospitalizations before their test converts.
This is well substantiated.
China’s data says that patients are infectious for 2-9 days before
they test positive. I don’t know about 9, because date of exposure is
often unknown, but several, during which they are spreading the virus.
Throw in the asymptomatic patients who are never tested, and the numbers
infected could be all over the map.
Don’t get me started on the thousands of people being hired to do
contact tracing. (Or screening for temperatures at the airport...) Well,
I guess it’s a job. Works great with a few cases of STD’s, but nearly
worthless in a pandemic where patients are often asymptomatic or think
they have the common cold.
Aren’t you sorry you asked? Ha!
On a personal level, I always love to hear from you, and would love to see you when this settles down!
With us being of a certain age, and even more so with your Dear
Mother, I agree with laying low. There will be a second wave, and maybe
more. I am 100% in favor of flattening the curve in hot spots to avoid
becoming another NYC, but starting to open up is really the only option
now. Hopeful for a vaccine (even with the known issues of mutations),
and really excited about the antibody therapies in trials, but herd
immunity is what is most likely to help us in the long run.
So, Dan, daughter who lives nearby and I have self quarantined except
for 2 Costco runs (the first after 6 weeks because we hadn’t prepared).
We are lucky to have some acreage just outside of SD with a few fruit
trees and a couple of avocado ones that survived the 07 wildfires. Nice,
safe outing!
I do the shopping because I think I’m better prepared to self
protect, and I wear my one N95 mask and one glove. The glove is so when I
get back to my car (where I have a trash bag hanging on the door
handle), I have one clean hand to open the door and reach for the
wipes/sanitizer.
If I’m making another stop, I don’t touch my mask until I’m home
where it hangs in the sun. People laugh about wearing a mask alone in a
car, but there’s the reason...) We leave mail and packaged goods in the
garage for a couple of days, but mostly take our chances with the cold
stuff, washing our hands though. I do strip down in the garage and leave
my clothes there for a few days. Don’t shake them.
That being said, we did just drive to Prescott Valley to help my
brother get ready to go home to Alaska. Advisable, IDK? He reportedly
has to avoid eating and sleeping (except in his vehicle) all the way
across Canada. He thinks they won’t stop him at the border because AK is
still his home base. He’s pulling up a snowmobile trailer, so that will
be his motel, going up at least. We will head home tomorrow.
Did I answer your question? I got sidetracked ... I’d be careful for
the foreseeable future. Sadly, I’d completely avoid churches, all gyms,
and malls for now. A lot of folks are taking their chances with no
social distancing, but I’m not there yet. Some churches are doing Zoom
services.
Take good care, and stay safe! Greet your Dear Mother for me!
Love and prayers!
Your old Roomie
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